Several Undrafted Rookies Could Stick

It's tough enough to guesstimate whether first- and second-round draft picks will use their can't-miss skills and actually succeed in the National Football League.

That task is nearly impossible when it comes to undrafted rookies, those who weren't deemed among the 252 best players during the annual selection process. Talk about your Mr. Irrelevants!

But at least a couple of these guys beat the odds with many NFL teams every year, and Green Bay general manager Ted Thompson is one talent evaluator who's become adept at finding these gems that nobody wanted.

Examples on the Packers roster include cornerback/kick returner Tramon Williams, linebacker/special teams stalwart Jason Hunter and backup wide receiver Ruvell Martin.

Green Bay's increased depth and talent pool will make it that much more difficult for this year's crop of new free agents to survive, but several of them are on my radar:

• Running back Kregg Lumpkin produced at Georgia when healthy and plays a position that wasn't addressed in the seven-round draft.
• Notre Dame long snapper J.J. Jansen has been nearly flawless in about 300 snaps since 2005, including 114 times last year that featured 76 punts.
• Portland State center Brennan Carvalho participated in the Hula Bowl and was a two-time All-American and has played guard.
• Connecticut linebacker Danny Lansanah was an all-Big East pick in 2007 and recorded 10 career interceptions.

My crystal ball tells me that at least six of Green Bay's nine choices will make the final roster: wide receiver Jordy Nelson, quarterback Brian Brohm, cornerback Patrick Lee, tight end Jermichael Finley, defensive end Jeremy Thompson and offensive lineman Josh Sitton, while offensive tackle Breno Giacomini and quarterback Matt Flynn have outside shots depending on how the positional numbers break down and how many injuries pop up.

If they don't make the 53-man roster, several of the undrafted newcomers should stick on the practice squad. But Thompson usually trades conditional future draft picks (to get such guys as Ryan Grant) or grabs released players from other teams to round out the last few spots, so only time will tell.

Justin Beaver Deserves Shot in NFL Camp

Justin Beaver's workout numbers were nearly as good as, and sometimes better than, Darren McFadden of Arkansas, the No. 4 overall selection and first running back chosen in the National Football League's draft this past weekend. Beaver showed off his speed, agility and strength at the University of Wisconsin's pro day, including 4.45 seconds in the 40-yard dash and 25 repetitions in the bench press (225 pounds).

But one measurable that works against the former UW-Whitewater standout and NCAA Division III Gagliardi Trophy winner is his 5-7, 191-pound frame. The NFL isn't loaded with players that size. But as true football people know, the human heart can't be measured.

So, Beaver gets his chance to prove his worth this weekend as one of the undrafted free agents who'll participate in Green Bay's rookie minicamp. And no one deserves a tryout more than Beaver.

He rambled for 2,455 yards in 2007, breaking his own Division III standard that he set as a sophomore, while leading the Warhawks to the national championship with a 31-21 victory against Mount Union.

Beaver darted through the Raiders for 249 yards on 31 carries, including a 66-yard burst that led to the clinching touchdown in the final two minutes of the Stagg Bowl. The Palmyra-Eagle High School star and UW-W took the spotlight away from two-time defending champion Mount Union, which featured Pierre Garcon, who was drafted with a compensatory pick late in the sixth round by the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.

The results don't lie, and nobody knows that better than Packers general manager Ted Thompson, who was impressed enough to invite Beaver in for a closer look.

Here's hoping the Wisconsin-grown product turns some heads and gets a spot on Green Bay's 80-man off-season roster.

Trading Williams Best-Case Scenario

Corey Williams was an upstanding citizen in the Green Bay locker room and talented member of the team's defensive line rotation. It would have been nice to keep him around.

However, general manager Ted Thompson did the right thing by trading the team's franchise player to Cleveland for a second-round pick in the April 26-27 NFL draft.

First, even though the Packers had plenty of salary cap room, paying Williams the $6.363 million on a one-year contract was too much despite the fact that he has reportedly inked a six-year, $38 million deal with the Browns.

If Williams had been a full-time starter or a Pro Bowl player, those numbers would be a bargain. But his production decreased after Colin Cole and Johnny Jolly were lost to injuries and he was forced to carry a much bigger load.

He recorded seven sacks but like most guys who get the franchise designation, he could have grumbled about not being able to auction his services to everybody in the free-agent marketplace. It also would have been too prohibitive to work out a long-term deal with him because of Oakland's outrageous seven-year, $50.5 million deal with Tommy Kelly.

Williams has a new home and big paycheck_one report has said he'll get $18 million in guarantees_while Green Bay gets to keep that $6.363 million to spend on other free agents or put toward signing young core players such as running back Ryan Grant to long-term deals.

Williams' absence obviously creates a hole. Cole and Jolly must bounce back, and Jolly's shoulder injury could keep him out for most of training camp. That leaves veteran Ryan Pickett and second-year player Justin Harrell in the middle, and the latter was a non-factor in 2007.

Cole, a restricted free agent, was given a second-round tender of $1.47 million, meaning that the Packers will receive a second-round pick if another team signs him to a contract. That may not be likely, but with more money to throw around and teams always looking for defensive linemen, I wouldn't dismiss the possibility entirely.

Thompson no doubt will address this area through free agency and/or the draft. This move gives the Packers two second-round choices (Nos. 56 and 60) and seven overall, and they'll likely obtain a compensatory pick, too. It also increases the chances that Thompson could package several picks and move up in round one, although he's never done that in his first three drafts in Green Bay.

Packers say bye-bye to Bubba

General manager Ted Thompson wasted little time in telling the world that Green Bay is looking for tight ends this off-season.

The Packers released Bubba Franks, who caught 256 passes for 32 touchdowns in eight seasons. He made the Pro Bowl three consecutive times from 2001-03, mainly because he was one of the league's best blockers at the position, he became a TD machine in the red zone and there weren't many topnotch TEs to choose from.

Franks was the 14th overall selection in the first round of the 2000 draft, somewhat of a reach out of necessity by then GM Ron Wolf after the Mark Chmura shenanigans forced his hand.

Franks was a genuinely good guy and positive presence in the locker room, but he lacked the speed and athleticism to create plays down the field. He was the starter when healthy, which wasn't often enough the past three seasons, although he lost his No. 1 spot to the vastly improved Donald Lee in 2007, making it a foregone conclusion to many that he might not make the team next fall.

Franks' departure shaves a $500,000 roster bonus due in March and a $3 million base salary for 2008 off the books.

So, that leaves Lee and another often injured performer, Tory Humphrey, as the holdovers.
That also means that Green Bay could be exploring signing a veteran free agent such as Alge Crumpler, who was recently cut by Atlanta.

If not, Thompson obviously has his eyes on picking a potential replacement from a deep draft class.

Packers on the Ball with new capologist

Ted Thompson has pulled the trigger on many more good moves than bad ones since becoming Green Bay's general manager in 2005. And it appears his latest maneuver will work in the Packers' favor, too.

Thompson announced the hiring of Russ Ball on Wednesday as the team's new vice president of football administration/player finance. That's a fancy phrase for contract negotiator and salary cap guru, roles that Andrew Brandt filled so admirably before leaving in January.

Ball has experience on the football and administrative sides of the NFL, where he worked with head coach Mike McCarthy in Kansas City and New Orleans and with one of Thompson's top colonels, personnel analyst John Schneider, in K.C. and Washington.

That familiarity will pay dividends in the long haul but more importantly in the short term as he moves to his new digs on Lombardi Avenue only two weeks before the free agent period begins Feb. 29.

Thompson and Brandt have put the Packers among the best in the league fiscally, with an estimated $25 million in their coffers to spend if they so choose and only one unrestricted free agent of note, defensive tackle Corey Williams.

Ball reportedly helped leave New Orleans, where he worked the past six seasons, with around $30 million in cap space, so he obviously knows how the system works. If he got along with McCarthy, who works well with Thompson, then this should be an excellent fit.

McCarthy's new deal bodes well for future

Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy officially signed off on a five-year contract today that had been rumored for several weeks and reportedly will pay him about $4 million per season.

That means McCarthy and general manager Ted Thompson, who inked a new pact early in January, are scheduled to remain the Packers' dynamic duo on the football side of the operation through 2012.

McCarthy, in Honolulu coaching the NFC team in the Pro Bowl, was making about $2 million annually under the original three-year contract he signed before the 2006 campaign.

Both men deserved the extensions and raises after Thompson dug the Packers out of a salary cap mess upon taking over from Mike Sherman in 2005, while McCarthy and his staff have worked wonders with the youngest team in the NFL.

Green Bay rebounded for an 8-8 finish last year and were one of the league's surprise teams this past season, finishing 13-3 and claiming the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs, where the Packers lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants, 23-20 in overtime despite a subpar performance in the championship showdown at frigid Lambeau Field.

McCarthy has shown the propensity for offensive flexibility, although his squad has been inconsistent at best in mastering the zone block running scheme. Defensively, he's handed the reins to Bob Sanders and the Packers have steadily made progress, although they need to improve a couple of notches to become one of the elite units. Their special teams also have gotten better.

“We have accomplished some of our goals over the past two seasons, but there remains much left to be done," McCarthy said in a statement. "I am excited by the opportunity to meet those challenges and someday return another Lombardi Trophy home to Green Bay.”

McCarthy and Vince Lombardi are the only two Green Bay coaches to lead the Packers as far as the NFL/NFC title contest in just their second season. McCarthy has earned accolades from his players for being tough but approachable.

Those traits will serve him well as expectations, inside and outside of 1265 Lombardi Ave., naturally will rise after their wonderful 2007 campaign. McCarthy is a guy who can deal with that burden.

Pack 15-1 odds to win Super Bowl XLIII

It didn't take but a few hours for the dust to settle on the New York Giants shocking upset of New England to get Vegas excited about next year's Super Bowl.

The Patriots, who'll be eating humble pie until September, are again the favorite to take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy in January 2009. New England, if they don't leave early, is pegged as a 4-to-1 favorite to claim their fourth title in eight years, according to Bodog.

Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers are among the top three teams in the NFC, sitting at 15/1 odds, thus making them the likely repeat champion of the North. The Giants and Dallas are tabbed as 10/1 favorites.

San Diego (6/1) and Indianapolis (8/1) are the other leading contenders in the AFC.

As for the Packers' divisional challengers, Chicago and Minnesota are given 35/1 odds, while Detroit is at 50/1.

Green Bay, unless quarterback Brett Favre retires or something catastrophic occurs, will no doubt enter next season as the top dog in the North. But throwing out odds and predictions already is like finding fool's gold, what with free agency, the draft and injuries from training camp and the preseason still major hurdles.